Are the Wallabies *actually* confident, or is it just wishful thinking? That's the question on everyone's lips ahead of the Springboks' Rugby Championship opener at Ellis Park. Veteran rugby scribe Mark Keohane weighs in on the Aussie optimism, which, frankly, defies decades of history.
Keohane points to comments from Jeremy Paul, the 2003 World Cup-winning hooker, who's predicting an upset in Johannesburg. Paul claims the Wallabies are "battle-hardened" after their Lions series and will be better prepared than the Springboks. Keohane, however, found the claim so outlandish he joked about checking if it was AI-generated!
Let's be honest, the Wallabies haven't exactly dominated at Ellis Park. In fact, they've never won there in the professional era (since 1996). Their *only* win at the iconic venue came way back in 1963. Ouch.
Even in 2002, when the Boks were struggling, the Wallabies couldn't seal the deal. They led 31-26 with seconds left, only for Werner Greeff to score and convert a try at the death, snatching a 33-31 victory for South Africa. "If not on that day, then when Australia?" Keohane asks pointedly.
History Favours the Boks
The numbers don't lie. South Africa has won 79% of all home matches against Australia. The Wallabies' record in South Africa is worse than in any other country where they've played 20 or more Tests. One dead-rubber win against a relaxed British & Irish Lions side doesn't exactly scream "championship contenders".
The Verdict?
While the Australian confidence is adding some spice to the build-up, Keohane concludes that it might be more sizzle than steak. Can the Wallabies defy history? We'll have to wait and see. But the odds are definitely stacked against them.