The NATO summit in The Hague is shaping up to be a moment of triumph for Donald Trump, while potentially signalling a period of disillusionment for Ukraine. After years of railing against perceived inadequacies in European defence spending, Trump, buoyed by the support of incoming NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, appears to have secured a commitment from member states to significantly increase their defence budgets.
Defence Spending Target: A Win for Trump?
The headline agreement expected at the summit is a pledge from allies to raise core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035. This represents a substantial increase for many nations and is seen as a direct response to Trump's persistent pressure on European partners to shoulder more of the financial burden for their security. Rutte's influence in securing this commitment is noteworthy.
Beyond Defence Spending: Trump's Assertiveness
Adding to the sense of Trump's ascendancy is the timing of the summit. Fresh off the back of a major military intervention – the bombing of Iranian nuclear sites – and the declaration of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, Trump is likely to arrive in The Hague in a confident and self-congratulatory mood.
The summit is designed to be concise, catering to leaders with limited attention spans. It commences with a dinner hosted by the Dutch king, Willem-Alexander, followed by a single working meeting and press conferences. This streamlined format suggests an attempt to avoid any potential friction or dissenting voices.
Ukraine's Concerns: A Softening of Support?
While Trump celebrates what he perceives as a victory, concerns linger about the implications for Ukraine. Although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is invited to the dinner, he is excluded from the core working meeting with NATO leaders. This exclusion reflects a possible shift in US support for Kyiv, especially considering the halt of new military aid under the Trump administration.
- Concerns about Trump's commitment to NATO have lessened, but not disappeared completely.
- The possibility of withdrawing US troops from Europe remains a background anxiety.
- Ukraine fears abandonment and a closer relationship between the US and Moscow.
The summit highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics at play, with Trump asserting his influence, European allies adapting to his demands, and Ukraine facing an uncertain future.