Hurricane Season 2025: What You Need to Know
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is now entering its peak months, and experts are closely monitoring several developing weather systems. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has updated its seasonal outlook, providing the latest predictions for storm activity.
While the initial forecast called for a highly active season, the updated outlook slightly lowers the number of expected storms. However, the overall message remains the same: be prepared for an above-average hurricane season. NOAA now projects a 50% chance of an above-average season, a slight decrease from the previous 60% forecast.
Current Tropical Activity
- Dexter: Now a post-tropical cyclone, Dexter is moving out to sea after succumbing to upper-level winds in the North Atlantic.
- Invest 96L: This tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic has an increasing chance of development. Weather models suggest it will likely steer into the central or west Atlantic next week.
- Disturbance off the East Coast: Meteorologists are watching an area off the U.S. East Coast that may develop into a sub-tropical system as it moves away from the United States.
- Tropical Wave over the Bahamas: A tropical wave is moving towards Florida, increasing the chances of rain in the area over the next few days.
NOAA's Forecast Numbers
NOAA forecasts a range of 13 to 18 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 are expected to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). This count includes the four tropical storms that have already formed: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter.
A typical year averages around 14 tropical storms, with 7 becoming hurricanes, based on historical data from 1991 to 2020.
Factors Contributing to Active Season
The anticipated above-normal activity is attributed to a combination of factors:
- Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.
- An active West African monsoon, which promotes the formation of African easterly waves that can develop into tropical storms.
- ENSO-neutral conditions, meaning the absence of El Niño or La Niña influence.
When Does Hurricane Season End?
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st to November 30th. Stay informed and prepared as we enter the peak months of the season.