EUDR Risk List: How Indonesia and Brazil are Impacted in Commodity Trade

The European Union's Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), set to fully launch in 2025, is poised to significantly reshape global commodity trade, particularly for key players like Indonesia and Brazil. The EUDR introduces a tiered risk system—low, standard, and high—affecting the compliance burden for exporters of commodities like coffee. This system directly influences how EU buyers select suppliers, favoring those from countries with lower risk classifications.

Understanding the EUDR Risk Tiers

Countries classified as low risk benefit from simplified due diligence, requiring only basic information gathering without mandatory risk assessment or mitigation. EU Member States will inspect a mere 1% of operations from these nations. In contrast, standard and high-risk countries face rigorous full due diligence, including geolocation, legality verification, and comprehensive risk mitigation. Inspection rates for these tiers are significantly higher, at 3% and 9%, respectively.

Indonesia and Brazil's 'Standard Risk' Designation

Despite historically high deforestation rates, Indonesia and Brazil have been designated as 'standard risk' countries. This classification necessitates full due diligence for their commodity exports to the EU. While not as stringent as the 'high risk' category, it still presents considerable compliance challenges and costs for exporters. This means exporters must meticulously track their supply chains, ensuring no deforestation is linked to their products entering the EU market.

Criticisms and Concerns Regarding the EUDR

The EUDR's initial country risk classifications have faced criticism from environmental groups. Only four countries—Belarus, Myanmar, North Korea, and Russia—were designated as high risk, raising questions about the effectiveness of the regulation in addressing deforestation hotspots worldwide. Critics argue that the current classification overlooks significant deforestation areas and doesn't adequately address the scale of the problem.

The impact of the EUDR on Indonesia and Brazil, as 'standard risk' countries, remains to be seen. While not facing the highest level of scrutiny, businesses in these countries will need to adapt quickly to the new regulations to maintain access to the lucrative EU market. The EUDR's success hinges on its ability to effectively drive deforestation-free supply chains and promote sustainable commodity production globally.

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